加密货币杂谈（三）：虚妄和繁荣 | Illusion and Prosperity
其实最开始想写的标题是《虚妄的繁荣》。但是在此时此刻的世界，如此描述似乎也不完全准确，将其称为虚妄和繁荣可能是一个更好的做法。 Actually, the original title I wanted to write was “The Illusion of Prosperity”. But in the current world, such a description doesn’t seem entirely accurate. It might be better to call it “Illusion and Prosperity”.
¶前言
本篇会写的相对短一些，主要还是聊聊加密币这个被社会舆论严重扭曲的东西，我自己是怎么看的。
This article will be relatively short, mainly discussing how I personally view cryptocurrencies, which have been heavily distorted by public opinion.
¶妖魔化和反妖魔化
从 2008 年首次被提出以来，虚拟货币在过去的 15 年里的多数时间，包括比特币本身，都被当作过玩具币。而在 21 年大冲顶后，彻底成为韩国老太太都在玩的东西以后，加密货币正式完成了被妖魔化的过程。
对于散户来说，论点在于加密货币本身是不是一个真正的货币，是不是一种未来支付方式的替代，以及是否是一场场庞氏骗局。
对于纯理性的投资者来说，论点在于如何将其看作是一种新兴的投资对象，正如股票、期货、国债一样，以及如何评定其信用。
对于技术从业者来说，论点可能更多在于其背后的加密技术和去中心化模式对未来产品形态、资产持有方式和协作方式的改变会有多大。
从个人的观点来看，这些论点都有其本身的价值，我无法像一个真正专家一般去回答这些问题，但是我还是认为围绕这些论点展开的无穷无尽的讨论是导致加密货币本身被剧烈妖魔化的根源。抑或是说，这三方的讨论者里，一定有大量的人其实是希望这种妖魔化持续下去，并且为加密货币加上一层朦胧的面纱，来满足他们画大饼和讲故事的空间。
从我国一贯教育的价值和价格角度来讨论加密货币其实是有一些问题的，马克思的那套劳动价值论早就遇到了时代的壁垒。在 70 年代美元黄金体系破灭后，各个国家竞相通过无限寅吃卯粮循环来增加流动性，并且基尼系數在无尽的放水中越走越远的现在，可能皮耶罗·斯拉法在其《用商品生产商品》更能片面的阐述加密货币的价格锚定逻辑。
无论是否是虚拟货币的信徒，亦或者是希望其归零，破除妖魔化的迷雾，尽可能用理性人的观点来接受事实从而再进行分析，才是正确的面对事物的处理法门。
Since it was first proposed in 2008, cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin itself, have been regarded as toy currencies for most of the past 15 years. After the 2021 GREAT Peak, which made cryptocurrencies something even Korean grandmothers were playing with, cryptocurrencies officially completed the process of being demonized.
For normal investors, the argument is whether cryptocurrencies themselves are a real currency, a replacement for future payment methods, or a series of Ponzi schemes.
For rational investors, the argument is how to view it as a new investment object, just like stocks, futures, and government bonds, and how to evaluate its credit.
For technical practitioners, the argument may be more about how the encryption technology and decentralized model behind it will change the future product form, asset holding method, and collaboration method.
From my personal perspective, these arguments all have their own value, and I cannot answer these questions like a real expert. However, I still believe that the endless discussions surrounding these arguments are the root cause of the severe demonization of cryptocurrencies. Or perhaps, among the three parties of discussants, there must be a large number of people who actually hope that this demonization will continue and add a layer of vague veil to cryptocurrencies to satisfy their storytelling.
From the perspective of values and prices that have always been emphasized in Chinese education, there are actually some problems with discussing cryptocurrencies. Marx’s labor theory of value has long encountered the barrier of the times. After the collapse of Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, various countries competed to increase liquidity through endless printing, in the meanwhile the Gini coefficient has also been increasing in the endless flood of liquidity. Now, Piero Sraffa’s “Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities” may better explain the logic of price anchoring for cryptocurrencies.
Whether you are a believer in cryptocurrencies or hope to see them failed to zero, to dispel the fog of demonization, it is correct to accept the facts and analyze them as rationally as possible.
¶阳光下从来没有新事物
其实和很多人的直觉相悖，虚拟货币这个东西除了将其进行实现的区块链（事实上区块链主要也是应用创新而非理论创新）之外，其实是一个非常非常传统且古老的东西，古老到明末清初就有几乎一样的东西出来了 ———— 股票。
首先来看看传统的股票机构是如何记录股票的买卖过程并且保证其可信的：
股票交易的记录和可信度由证券交易所和相关监管机构负责。证券交易所会通过其交易系统记录每一笔股票交易的细节，包括交易时间、交易价格、交易数量等信息，并确保这些信息公开透明、可查询。监管机构会对证券交易所的交易数据进行监管，确保交易过程的合法性和公正性，以维护市场的稳定和投资者的利益。在一些国家，也有专门的证券中央存管机构来记录股票交易过程和持股人信息，以确保证券交易的安全和透明。
可以看到，这里本质有两个关键机构，分别是 证券交易所 和 证监会。
之所以有证监会的原因，是人类其实并不能确保 证券交易所 的绝对廉洁，否则也不会有如此之多禁止证券业从业者参与股票和投资的规范条文了。如果有看过我前两篇关于加密货币的论文，应该能想起来，区块链这个技术本身同时完成了 记录 和 确保正确（监督） 的作用，也就是其产生的方式本身，就是 证券交易所 和 证监会 的合体，并且这个过程里理论上排除了人类进行贪污和漏洞攻击的可能（此处说理论上是因为并不是所有货币的 Mrkt Cap 都能达到不被多数攻击的程度）。
所以这里是我第一个想破除的妖魔化的点：加密货币是一种货币。
加密货币本质和货币本身没有半毛钱的关系，只是一个 T+0 且流动性远超传统股票的…嗯…股票。 也因为这个极高的流动能力，导致了在不少场合被很多机构赋予了货币的职能。
然后是第二个妖魔化的点：加密货币本身在整个过程中不创造价值，凭什么值钱。
这里我感觉很多人还是陷入了学生思维，甚至很多站在很高位置的人也犯了这个错误。他们明明是最理解这个世界运行规律的人。加密货币有无价值创造这件事情本身，根本就没有意义。现在，加密货币可以带来流动性，能有洗钱之作用，能在自由市场维持流动性和变现能力，那便是 既定之事实。如果哪天全部加密货币全部 归零 了，那也是 既定之事实。无论是巴菲特还是韩国大妈，呼喊号召本身改变不了任何事情，投资的第一课就是学会和现实世界共存。
事实上加密货币本身是有创造价值的，太多人仅仅看到了挖矿这件事情浪费的巨大算力和电量上了，这里还是片面了。其本身作为一种类股票的形态，自身在避税、突破汇率监管、黑市交易、匿名交易，以及 DAO 开发这类定义新的资产从属关系的地方，找到了自身的价值。更不用说我觉得 合约 本身其实挺适合多个 AI 实例之间进行资产的所有权和交易关系声明的。
其本身的原罪更多是在于，先有了加密货币，多年后才被各种实体赋予了价值锚点，在交易所发展之后，才逐渐成熟了价格体系。
事实上，这可比大片 ST 套壳上市公司的锚点扎实多了（笑）。当然了，大量山寨币的故事对冲了黄饼、USDT 等加密货币本身的信用，这确实是目前的一个无解的硬伤。
Contrary to many people’s intuition, besides the blockchain technology used to realize it (in fact, blockchain is more of an application innovation than a theoretical one), cryptocurrency is actually a very traditional and ancient thing. It is so ancient that something almost identical to it emerged in the late Ming and early Qing dynasties - stocks.
First, let’s take a look at how traditional stock institutions record and ensure the credibility of stock transactions:
The recording and credibility of stock transactions are the responsibility of the securities exchange and relevant regulatory agencies. The securities exchange records the details of each stock transaction, including the time, price, and quantity of the transaction, through its trading system, and ensures that this information is publicly transparent and searchable. Regulatory agencies supervise the trading data of the securities exchange to ensure the legality and fairness of the trading process, in order to maintain market stability and protect the interests of investors. In some countries, there are also special central depository institutions for securities to record the stock trading process and shareholder information, in order to ensure the safety and transparency of securities trading.
It can be seen that there are essentially two key institutions here, namely the securities exchange and the Securities Regulatory Commission (SRC).
The reason why the SRC exists is that humans cannot guarantee the absolute cleanliness of the securities exchange, otherwise there would not be so many regulations prohibiting securities industry practitioners from participating in stocks and investments. If you have read my previous two blogs on cryptocurrency, you should be able to recall that the blockchain technology itself simultaneously fulfills the roles of recording and ensuring correctness (supervision), and the way it is produced is a combination of the securities exchange and the SRC. This process theoretically eliminates the possibility of human corruption and vulnerability attacks (the reason why I say theoretically is because not all cryptocurrencies can achieve a level of market capitalization that is not susceptible to majority attacks).
So here is the first demonized point I want to debunk: cryptocurrency is a currency.
Cryptocurrency has nothing to do with currency itself, it is just a stock that is T+0 and has much higher liquidity than traditional stocks. Because of its high liquidity, it has been given the function of currency by many institutions in many occasions.
The second demonized point to debunk is that cryptocurrency itself does not create value, so why is it valuable?
I feel that many people are still stuck in a student mindset, and even many people in high positions have made this mistake, while they are actually the people who understand the laws of the world best. Whether or not cryptocurrency creates value is meaningless in itself. Now, cryptocurrency can bring liquidity, can be used for money laundering, can maintain liquidity and liquidity and cashing ability in a free market, and that is the established fact. If all cryptocurrencies were to go to zero one day, that would also be an established fact. Whether it’s Warren Buffett or a Korean grandma, shouting and calling for something doesn’t change anything. The first lesson in investing is to learn to coexist with the real world.
In fact, cryptocurrency itself DOES create value. Many people only see the huge computing power and electricity wasted in mining, which is a one-sided view. As a form of stock, it has found its value in tax avoidance, breaking through exchange rate regulation, black market transactions, anonymous transactions, and DAO development to define new asset ownership relationships. Not to mention, I think the contract itself is quite suitable for multiple AI instances to declare asset ownership and trading relationships.
Its original sin is more about the fact that it was given a value anchor by various entities many years after cryptocurrency was established, and it gradually developed a price system after being traded on exchanges.
In fact, this is much more solid than the value anchor of many shell listed companies lol. Of course, the fact that a large number of copycat coins diluting the credit of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, USDT, etc. is currently an unsolvable problem.
¶投资决策
我其实不想给任何人关于加密货币的投资决策，但是如果非要说的话，大概就三点：
定投，不要一次 All-In 锁死成本。除非确定的历史事件。
远离杠杆和合约。大宗期货和外汇交易使用杠杆是有深刻的历史原因的，而加密货币没有。
远离 USDT，BTC，ETH 之外的任何加密货币。当然买个几百刀的山寨币权当买着玩也没事。
这样的话，你一定不会有一夜暴富的神话，但是你至少不会死得像条路边丑陋的贱狗。
祝大家，早日财富自由。
I actually don’t want to give anyone investment decisions about cryptocurrencies, but if I have to, there are probably three points:
Dollar-cost averaging, don’t lock in costs all at once unless it’s based on a certain historical event.
Stay away from leverage and contracts. The use of leverage in bulk futures and forex trading has deep historical reasons, and cryptocurrencies don’t.
Stay away from any cryptocurrencies other than USDT, BTC, and ETH. Of course, buying a few hundred dollars of a copycat coin for fun is also okay.
This way, you won’t have the myth of getting rich overnight, but at least you won’t die like a cheap dog on the side of the road.
I wish you all financial freedom some day.
Best Regards.
¶Links
加密货币杂谈（一）：创生与加密
加密货币杂谈（二）：黄金矿工